Lost Without Translation: Identifying Gaps in U.S. Perceptions of the Chinese Commercial Space Sector
The Secure World Foundation and Caelus Foundation present this joint white paper exploring gaps in U.S. perceptions of China’s emerging commercial space sector. Drawing on interviews with U.S. space industry stakeholders and comparative analysis of Chinese commercial space developments, the study highlights how geopolitical assumptions, limited access to Mandarin-language sources, and reliance on strategic narratives have shaped an incomplete or distorted understanding of China's space ecosystem.
The report challenges simplified characterizations of Chinese space actors as monolithic or entirely state-driven. It identifies a diverse landscape of commercial players, including startups and hybrid entities with varying degrees of state affiliation. The analysis reveals critical uncertainties about who future Chinese competitors will be, what resources they may have, and what norms they will operate under in international markets.
Key findings include:
- U.S. stakeholders expect long-term competition with Chinese space companies but lack clarity on actors and structures involved.
- Venture capital, provincial support, and inspiration from companies like SpaceX are driving a growing entrepreneurial space scene in China.
- Information asymmetries and language barriers hinder nuanced understanding.
- “National Team” SOEs and private startups coexist, but tensions over talent and market share remain.
This paper calls for deeper, more multilingual engagement and research to support better-informed space policy and commercial decisions.
